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Pontevedra vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontevedra
Pontevedra
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
2/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio Municipal de Pasarón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pontevedra44%
×Draw27%
AD Ceuta FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontevedra
1.34
AD Ceuta FC
1.03

Pontevedra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pontevedra
1.31
AD Ceuta FC
1.11

allows per match

Pontevedra
0.95
AD Ceuta FC
1.37

finishing

Pontevedra+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pontevedra or draw
71%
Pontevedra or AD Ceuta FC
73%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
56%

Winning margin

Pontevedra wins by 2+
20%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pontevedra 1+ goals
74%
Pontevedra 2+ goals
39%
Pontevedra 3+ goals
15%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
64%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
28%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra (draw refunded)
60%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.95 · 64 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra attack 1.31 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.34

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.11 + Pontevedra defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Pontevedra scores more
44%
level
27%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
29%

Pontevedra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Pontevedra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontevedra vs AD Ceuta FC

AD Ceuta FC beat Pontevedra 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Pasarón in Pontevedra.