Pontevedra II 0–1 Viveiro: Result & Stats

Pontevedra II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Viveiro

9/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Campo Municipal A Seca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II37%

×Draw27%

Viveiro35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontevedra IIExpected goals in this matchViveiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.19

Pontevedra II

1.24

Viveiro

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 99 away

0.88

creates per match

0.97

1.41

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Pontevedra II

0.88

Viveiro

0.97

allows per match

Pontevedra II

1.41

Viveiro

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Viveiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

Viveiro →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw

65%

Pontevedra II or Viveiro

73%

Draw or Viveiro

63%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+

16%

Viveiro wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals

71%

Pontevedra II 2+ goals

35%

Pontevedra II 3+ goals

13%

Viveiro 1+ goals

70%

Viveiro 2+ goals

33%

Viveiro 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)

52%

Viveiro (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Viveiro away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.60 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + Viveiro defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.24

Viveiro attack 0.97 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Pontevedra II scores more

37%

level

27%

Viveiro scores more

35%

Pontevedra II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pontevedra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff