Pontevedra II 1–3 Paiosaco: Result & Stats

Pontevedra II

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Paiosaco

12/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Campo Municipal A Seca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pontevedra II41%

×Draw27%

Paiosaco33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pontevedra IIExpected goals in this matchPaiosaco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.19

Pontevedra II

1.37

Paiosaco

1.19

Pontevedra II creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

0.88

creates per match

0.97

1.41

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Pontevedra II

0.88

Paiosaco

0.97

allows per match

Pontevedra II

1.41

Paiosaco

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontevedra II+0.00on par

Paiosaco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontevedra II ↓

Paiosaco →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pontevedra II or draw

67%

Pontevedra II or Paiosaco

73%

Draw or Paiosaco

59%

Winning margin

Pontevedra II wins by 2+

19%

Paiosaco wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pontevedra II 1+ goals

75%

Pontevedra II 2+ goals

40%

Pontevedra II 3+ goals

16%

Paiosaco 1+ goals

70%

Paiosaco 2+ goals

33%

Paiosaco 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pontevedra II (draw refunded)

56%

Paiosaco (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pontevedra II at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Paiosaco away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pontevedra II attack 0.88 + Paiosaco defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Paiosaco attack 0.97 + Pontevedra II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pontevedra II scores more

41%

level

27%

Paiosaco scores more

33%

Pontevedra II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pontevedra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff