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Pontellas vs Rápido Bouzas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontellas
Pontellas
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rápido Bouzas
Rápido Bouzas
8/25/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Campo de fútbol de San Campio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pontellas30%
×Draw27%
Rápido Bouzas43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontellas
1.10
Rápido Bouzas
1.38

Rápido Bouzas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

creates per match

Pontellas
0.97
Rápido Bouzas
1.12

allows per match

Pontellas
1.63
Rápido Bouzas
1.23

finishing

Pontellas+0.00on par
Rápido Bouzas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontellas ↓

Rápido Bouzas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pontellas or draw
57%
Pontellas or Rápido Bouzas
73%
Draw or Rápido Bouzas
70%

Winning margin

Pontellas wins by 2+
12%
Rápido Bouzas wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Pontellas 1+ goals
67%
Pontellas 2+ goals
30%
Pontellas 3+ goals
10%
Rápido Bouzas 1+ goals
75%
Rápido Bouzas 2+ goals
40%
Rápido Bouzas 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pontellas (draw refunded)
41%
Rápido Bouzas (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontellas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Rápido Bouzas away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontellas attack 0.97 + Rápido Bouzas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rápido Bouzas attack 1.12 + Pontellas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pontellas scores more
30%
level
27%
Rápido Bouzas scores more
43%

Rápido Bouzas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rápido Bouzas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pontellas vs Rápido Bouzas

Rápido Bouzas beat Pontellas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de San Campio in O Porrinno.