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Pontellas vs Deportivo La Coruña II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontellas
Pontellas
CANC
22:00
Deportivo La Coruña II
Deportivo La Coruña II
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 38Campo de fútbol de San Campio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pontellas27%
×Draw27%
Deportivo La Coruña II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontellas
1.01
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.40

Deportivo La Coruña II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

creates per match

Pontellas
0.97
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.16

allows per match

Pontellas
1.63
Deportivo La Coruña II
1.05

finishing

Pontellas+0.00on par
Deportivo La Coruña II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontellas ↓

Deportivo La Coruña II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pontellas or draw
54%
Pontellas or Deportivo La Coruña II
73%
Draw or Deportivo La Coruña II
73%

Winning margin

Pontellas wins by 2+
10%
Deportivo La Coruña II wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Pontellas 1+ goals
64%
Pontellas 2+ goals
27%
Pontellas 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo La Coruña II 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo La Coruña II 2+ goals
41%
Deportivo La Coruña II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pontellas (draw refunded)
37%
Deportivo La Coruña II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontellas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Deportivo La Coruña II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.05 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontellas attack 0.97 + Deportivo La Coruña II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Deportivo La Coruña II attack 1.16 + Pontellas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pontellas scores more
27%
level
27%
Deportivo La Coruña II scores more
46%

Deportivo La Coruña II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Deportivo La Coruña II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pontellas face Deportivo La Coruña II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 1)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Pontellas hosting Deportivo La Coruña II. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Pontellas host Deportivo La Coruña II at Campo de fútbol de San Campio.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.