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Pontellas vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Pontellas
Pontellas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Choco
Choco
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Campo de fútbol de San Campio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pontellas34%
×Draw27%
Choco38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pontellas
1.19
Choco
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 59 away

creates per match

Pontellas
0.97
Choco
0.92

allows per match

Pontellas
1.63
Choco
1.42

finishing

Pontellas+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontellas ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pontellas or draw
62%
Pontellas or Choco
73%
Draw or Choco
66%

Winning margin

Pontellas wins by 2+
14%
Choco wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pontellas 1+ goals
70%
Pontellas 2+ goals
33%
Pontellas 3+ goals
12%
Choco 1+ goals
72%
Choco 2+ goals
36%
Choco 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Pontellas (draw refunded)
47%
Choco (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontellas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontellas attack 0.97 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Choco attack 0.92 + Pontellas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pontellas scores more
34%
level
27%
Choco scores more
38%

Choco at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Choco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Pontellas 0–0 Choco

Pontellas and Choco drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de fútbol de San Campio in O Porrinno.