Pontellas 2–1 As Pontes: Result & Stats

Pontellas

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

As Pontes

4/25/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 4Campo de fútbol de San Campio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pontellas42%

×Draw26%

As Pontes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PontellasExpected goals in this matchAs Pontes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.19

Pontellas

1.41

As Pontes

1.19

Pontellas creates 18% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

0.97

creates per match

0.74

1.63

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Pontellas

0.97

As Pontes

0.74

allows per match

Pontellas

1.63

As Pontes

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontellas+0.00on par

As Pontes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontellas ↓

As Pontes →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pontellas or draw

68%

Pontellas or As Pontes

74%

Draw or As Pontes

58%

Winning margin

Pontellas wins by 2+

20%

As Pontes wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Pontellas 1+ goals

76%

Pontellas 2+ goals

41%

Pontellas 3+ goals

17%

As Pontes 1+ goals

70%

As Pontes 2+ goals

33%

As Pontes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pontellas (draw refunded)

57%

As Pontes (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pontellas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

As Pontes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.84 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pontellas attack 0.97 + As Pontes defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.41

As Pontes attack 0.74 + Pontellas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pontellas scores more

42%

level

26%

As Pontes scores more

32%

Pontellas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pontellas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff