Pontellas 0–2 Arosa: Result & Stats

Pontellas

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Arosa

11/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Campo de fútbol de San Campio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pontellas25%

×Draw25%

Arosa49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PontellasExpected goals in this matchArosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.55

Pontellas

1.04

Arosa

1.55

Arosa creates 49% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 94 away

0.97

creates per match

1.48

1.63

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Pontellas

0.97

Arosa

1.48

allows per match

Pontellas

1.63

Arosa

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontellas+0.00on par

Arosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontellas ↓

Arosa →

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pontellas or draw

51%

Pontellas or Arosa

75%

Draw or Arosa

75%

Winning margin

Pontellas wins by 2+

Arosa wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Pontellas 1+ goals

65%

Pontellas 2+ goals

28%

Pontellas 3+ goals

Arosa 1+ goals

79%

Arosa 2+ goals

46%

Arosa 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Pontellas (draw refunded)

34%

Arosa (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pontellas at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Arosa away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pontellas attack 0.97 + Arosa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Arosa attack 1.48 + Pontellas defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Pontellas scores more

25%

level

25%

Arosa scores more

49%

Arosa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff