Pontedera 1–2 Torres: Result & Stats | League #942

Pontedera

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Torres

2/23/2024

League #942 · Girone B - 28Stadio Ettore Mannucci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pontedera18%

×Draw20%

Torres62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PontederaExpected goals in this matchTorres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

2.15

Pontedera

1.06

Torres

2.15

Torres creates 103% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

0.79

creates per match

2.67

1.64

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Pontedera

0.79

Torres

2.67

allows per match

Pontedera

1.64

Torres

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pontedera+0.00on par

Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pontedera ↓

Torres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Pontedera or draw

38%

Pontedera or Torres

80%

Draw or Torres

82%

Winning margin

Pontedera wins by 2+

6%

Torres wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Pontedera 1+ goals

65%

Pontedera 2+ goals

29%

Pontedera 3+ goals

9%

Torres 1+ goals

88%

Torres 2+ goals

63%

Torres 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Pontedera (draw refunded)

22%

Torres (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pontedera at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Torres away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pontedera attack 0.79 + Torres defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Torres attack 2.67 + Pontedera defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Pontedera scores more

18%

level

20%

Torres scores more

62%

Torres at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff