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Ponte Preta W vs Vitória BA W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vitória BA W
Vitória BA W
7/13/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 11Estádio Benedito Teixeira (São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ponte Preta W47%
×Draw22%
Vitória BA W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta W
1.90
Vitória BA W
1.48

Ponte Preta W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta W
1.14
Vitória BA W
0.70

allows per match

Ponte Preta W
2.27
Vitória BA W
2.65

finishing

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par
Vitória BA W+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta W ↓

Vitória BA W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ponte Preta W or draw
70%
Ponte Preta W or Vitória BA W
78%
Draw or Vitória BA W
53%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
26%
Vitória BA W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
85%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
56%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
29%
Vitória BA W 1+ goals
77%
Vitória BA W 2+ goals
43%
Vitória BA W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
61%
Vitória BA W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

Vitória BA W away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.65 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta W attack 1.14 + Vitória BA W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.90

Vitória BA W attack 0.70 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ponte Preta W scores more
47%
level
22%
Vitória BA W scores more
30%

Ponte Preta W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ponte Preta W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponte Preta W vs Vitória BA W

Ponte Preta W beat Vitória BA W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on July 13, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Benedito Teixeira (São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo).