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Ponte Preta W vs Sport Recife W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sport Recife W
Sport Recife W
5/15/2019Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Benedito Teixeira (São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ponte Preta W50%
×Draw21%
Sport Recife W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta W
2.05
Sport Recife W
1.52

Ponte Preta W creates 35% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta W
1.14
Sport Recife W
0.78

allows per match

Ponte Preta W
2.27
Sport Recife W
2.96

finishing

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par
Sport Recife W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta W ↓

Sport Recife W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Ponte Preta W or draw
71%
Ponte Preta W or Sport Recife W
79%
Draw or Sport Recife W
50%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
29%
Sport Recife W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
87%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
61%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
33%
Sport Recife W 1+ goals
78%
Sport Recife W 2+ goals
45%
Sport Recife W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
63%
Sport Recife W (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

Sport Recife W away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta W attack 1.14 + Sport Recife W defence 2.96 → ÷2 → 2.05

Sport Recife W attack 0.78 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ponte Preta W scores more
50%
level
21%
Sport Recife W scores more
29%

Ponte Preta W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ponte Preta W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Ponte Preta W 5–0 Sport Recife W

Ponte Preta W beat Sport Recife W 5-0 in Brasileiro Women on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Benedito Teixeira (São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo).