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Ponte Preta W vs Sao Jose W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Jose W
Sao Jose W
9/6/2020Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ponte Preta W29%
×Draw24%
Sao Jose W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta W
1.27
Sao Jose W
1.66

Sao Jose W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 37 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta W
1.14
Sao Jose W
1.05

allows per match

Ponte Preta W
2.27
Sao Jose W
1.41

finishing

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par
Sao Jose W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta W ↓

Sao Jose W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ponte Preta W or draw
54%
Ponte Preta W or Sao Jose W
76%
Draw or Sao Jose W
71%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
12%
Sao Jose W wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
72%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
36%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
14%
Sao Jose W 1+ goals
81%
Sao Jose W 2+ goals
49%
Sao Jose W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
39%
Sao Jose W (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

Sao Jose W away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta W attack 1.14 + Sao Jose W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sao Jose W attack 1.05 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ponte Preta W scores more
29%
level
24%
Sao Jose W scores more
46%

Sao Jose W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Jose W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponte Preta W vs Sao Jose W

Sao Jose W beat Ponte Preta W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas, São Paulo.