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Ponte Preta W vs Internacional RS W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Ponte Preta W
Ponte Preta W
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Internacional RS W
Internacional RS W
2/16/2020Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ponte Preta W25%
×Draw23%
Internacional RS W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta W
1.21
Internacional RS W
1.88

Internacional RS W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 64 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta W
1.14
Internacional RS W
1.48

allows per match

Ponte Preta W
2.27
Internacional RS W
1.27

finishing

Ponte Preta W+0.00on par
Internacional RS W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta W ↓

Internacional RS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ponte Preta W or draw
47%
Ponte Preta W or Internacional RS W
77%
Draw or Internacional RS W
75%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta W wins by 2+
10%
Internacional RS W wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Ponte Preta W 1+ goals
70%
Ponte Preta W 2+ goals
34%
Ponte Preta W 3+ goals
12%
Internacional RS W 1+ goals
85%
Internacional RS W 2+ goals
56%
Internacional RS W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta W (draw refunded)
32%
Internacional RS W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.27 · 22 matches

Internacional RS W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.27 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta W attack 1.14 + Internacional RS W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Internacional RS W attack 1.48 + Ponte Preta W defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ponte Preta W scores more
25%
level
23%
Internacional RS W scores more
53%

Internacional RS W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Internacional RS W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Ponte Preta W 1–6 Internacional RS W

Internacional RS W beat Ponte Preta W 6-1 in Brasileiro Women on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Moisés Lucarelli in Campinas, São Paulo.