Ponte Preta 0–0 Ituano: Result & Stats | Serie B

Ponte Preta

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ituano

10/23/2023

Serie B · Round 33Estádio Moisés Lucarelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ponte Preta45%

×Draw28%

Ituano28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte PretaExpected goals in this matchItuano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.98

Ponte Preta

1.33

Ituano

0.98

Ponte Preta creates 36% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 57 away

1.18

creates per match

0.96

1.01

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Ponte Preta

1.18

Ituano

0.96

allows per match

Ponte Preta

1.01

Ituano

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta+0.00on par

Ituano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta ↓

Ituano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ponte Preta or draw

72%

Ponte Preta or Ituano

72%

Draw or Ituano

55%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

21%

Ituano wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

74%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

38%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

15%

Ituano 1+ goals

62%

Ituano 2+ goals

26%

Ituano 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

62%

Ituano (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 121 matches

Ituano away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta attack 1.18 + Ituano defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ituano attack 0.96 + Ponte Preta defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ponte Preta scores more

45%

level

28%

Ituano scores more

28%

Ponte Preta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ponte Preta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

Artur

Ponte Preta · D

7.7

Match Events

28'

Maílton

56'

Kauan Richard

61'

Yann Rolim← Eduardo Person

61'

Diego Quirino← Wesley Pomba

66'

Claudinho

66'

Samuel Andrade← Felipe Amaral

67'

Paulo Baya← Gabriel Santiago

70'

Yann Rollim

72'

Pacheco← Richard

79'

Igor Torres← Maílton

79'

Castro← Ramon

81'

Hélio Borges← Felipe Saraiva

81'

Vinícius Balieiro← Marthã

87'

P. Villero← Eliel

90+3'

Castro

90+1'

Vinicius Balieiro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonteItuano

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots10

2Corners8

18Fouls26

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target1

10Off Target4

1Blocked5

8Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

330Total Passes311

253Accurate Passes224

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls26

2Yellow Cards4

2Offsides3