Ponte Preta U20 5–2 Velo Clube U20: Result & Stats

Ponte Preta U20

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Velo Clube U20

Matheus Henrique 90+1'

Kaua Moreira 74', 65'

Pedrinho 41'

Kaio Ganga 23'

A. Duarte 86'

Fabio 81'

6/28/2025

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ponte Preta U2051%

×Draw25%

Velo Clube U2024%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte Preta U20Expected goals in this matchVelo Clube U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.06

Ponte Preta U20

1.65

Velo Clube U20

1.06

Ponte Preta U20 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

1.91

creates per match

0.95

1.17

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20

1.91

Velo Clube U20

0.95

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20

1.17

Velo Clube U20

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw

76%

Ponte Preta U20 or Velo Clube U20

75%

Draw or Velo Clube U20

49%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+

27%

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals

81%

Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals

49%

Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals

23%

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals

65%

Velo Clube U20 2+ goals

29%

Velo Clube U20 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)

68%

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.65

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more

51%

level

25%

Velo Clube U20 scores more

24%

Ponte Preta U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Kaio Ganga

41'

Pedrinho

65'

Kaua Moreira

74'

Kaua Moreira

81'

Fabio

86'

A. Duarte

90+1'

Matheus Henrique

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff