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Ponte Preta U20 vs São Bento U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
São Bento U20
São Bento U20
Joao Damiao 45'
H. Muniz 45'
Gabriel Castro 20'
T. Prado 90'
Enzo 16'
6/12/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ponte Preta U2056%
×Draw22%
São Bento U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
1.98
São Bento U20
1.18

Ponte Preta U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.91
São Bento U20
1.19

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.17
São Bento U20
2.05

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
São Bento U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

São Bento U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
78%
Ponte Preta U20 or São Bento U20
78%
Draw or São Bento U20
44%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
33%
São Bento U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
86%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
59%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
31%
São Bento U20 1+ goals
69%
São Bento U20 2+ goals
33%
São Bento U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
71%
São Bento U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

São Bento U20 away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + São Bento U20 defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.98

São Bento U20 attack 1.19 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
56%
level
22%
São Bento U20 scores more
22%

Ponte Preta U20 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
Enzo
20'
Gabriel Castro
45'
Joao Damiao
45'
H. Muniz
90'
T. Prado

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Ponte Preta U20 3–2 São Bento U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat São Bento U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on June 12, 2026.

Goals: Enzo (16'), Gabriel Castro (20'), Joao Damiao (45'), H. Muniz (45'), T. Prado (90').