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Ponte Preta U20 vs Osasco Audax U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
FT
3 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Osasco Audax U20
Osasco Audax U20
Kaio Ganga 76' (pen)
Anderson 53'
Kaua Moreira 49'
Caio Cesar 78'
Nickson 69' (OG)
P. G. Silva dos Reis 61'
Leonnan 47'
Felipe Alves 33'
5/3/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ponte Preta U2055%
×Draw22%
Osasco Audax U2022%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
1.92
Osasco Audax U20
1.14

Ponte Preta U20 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.91
Osasco Audax U20
1.11

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.17
Osasco Audax U20
1.94

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
Osasco Audax U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Osasco Audax U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
78%
Ponte Preta U20 or Osasco Audax U20
78%
Draw or Osasco Audax U20
45%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
32%
Osasco Audax U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
85%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
57%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
30%
Osasco Audax U20 1+ goals
68%
Osasco Audax U20 2+ goals
32%
Osasco Audax U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
71%
Osasco Audax U20 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Osasco Audax U20 away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Osasco Audax U20 defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.92

Osasco Audax U20 attack 1.11 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
55%
level
22%
Osasco Audax U20 scores more
22%

Ponte Preta U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
Felipe Alves
47'
Leonnan
49'
Kaua Moreira
53'
Anderson
61'
P. G. Silva dos Reis
69'
NicksonOwn goal
76'
Kaio GangaPenalty
78'
Caio Cesar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Ponte Preta U20 3–5 Osasco Audax U20

Osasco Audax U20 beat Ponte Preta U20 5-3 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: Felipe Alves (33'), Leonnan (47'), Kaua Moreira (49'), Anderson (53'), P. G. Silva dos Reis (61'), Nickson (69' o.g.), Kaio Ganga (76' pen), Caio Cesar (78').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.