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Ponte Preta U20 vs Inter Limeira U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Inter Limeira U20
Inter Limeira U20
Anderson 90+3'
Pablo 25'
Pedrinho 11'
Thomaz 61'
6/7/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ponte Preta U2049%
×Draw24%
Inter Limeira U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
1.71
Inter Limeira U20
1.21

Ponte Preta U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.91
Inter Limeira U20
1.25

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.17
Inter Limeira U20
1.50

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
Inter Limeira U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Inter Limeira U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
73%
Ponte Preta U20 or Inter Limeira U20
76%
Draw or Inter Limeira U20
51%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
26%
Inter Limeira U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
82%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
51%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
24%
Inter Limeira U20 1+ goals
70%
Inter Limeira U20 2+ goals
34%
Inter Limeira U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Inter Limeira U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Inter Limeira U20 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Inter Limeira U20 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Inter Limeira U20 attack 1.25 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
49%
level
24%
Inter Limeira U20 scores more
27%

Ponte Preta U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Pedrinho
25'
Pablo
61'
Thomaz
90+3'
Anderson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponte Preta U20 vs Inter Limeira U20

Ponte Preta U20 beat Inter Limeira U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on June 7, 2025.

Goals: Pedrinho (11'), Pablo (25'), Thomaz (61'), Anderson (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.