Ponte Preta U20 0–1 Guarani U20: Result & Stats

Ponte Preta U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guarani U20

Unknown 90+2'

10/3/2025

Paulista - U20 · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ponte Preta U2038%

×Draw26%

Guarani U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponte Preta U20Expected goals in this matchGuarani U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.31

Ponte Preta U20

1.36

Guarani U20

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

1.91

creates per match

1.45

1.17

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20

1.91

Guarani U20

1.45

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20

1.17

Guarani U20

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw

64%

Ponte Preta U20 or Guarani U20

74%

Draw or Guarani U20

62%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+

17%

Guarani U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals

74%

Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals

39%

Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals

16%

Guarani U20 1+ goals

73%

Guarani U20 2+ goals

38%

Guarani U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.36

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more

38%

level

26%

Guarani U20 scores more

36%

Ponte Preta U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff