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Ponte Preta U20 vs Avaí U20 — Brasileiro U20 B 2025

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Avaí U20
Avaí U20
Unknown 63'
Unknown 59', 42', 15'
4/30/2025Brasileiro U20 BBrasileiro U20 B · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ponte Preta U2020%
×Draw21%
Avaí U2060%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
1.13
Avaí U20
2.13

Avaí U20 creates 88% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.00
Avaí U20
2.25

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
2.00
Avaí U20
1.25

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
Avaí U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Avaí U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
40%
Ponte Preta U20 or Avaí U20
79%
Draw or Avaí U20
80%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
7%
Avaí U20 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
68%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
31%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
11%
Avaí U20 1+ goals
88%
Avaí U20 2+ goals
63%
Avaí U20 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
25%
Avaí U20 (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Avaí U20 away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.00 + Avaí U20 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Avaí U20 attack 2.25 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
20%
level
21%
Avaí U20 scores more
60%

Avaí U20 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Avaí U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
28'
42'
59'
63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponte Preta U20 vs Avaí U20

Avaí U20 beat Ponte Preta U20 3-1 in Brasileiro U20 B on April 30, 2025.

Goals: ? (15', 42', 59', 63').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.