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Ponte Preta U20 vs Aguai U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aguai U20
Aguai U20
K. Queiroz 3'
5/3/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ponte Preta U2057%
×Draw22%
Aguai U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponte Preta U20
1.96
Aguai U20
1.11

Ponte Preta U20 creates 77% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.91
Aguai U20
1.05

allows per match

Ponte Preta U20
1.17
Aguai U20
2.00

finishing

Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par
Aguai U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponte Preta U20 ↓

Aguai U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ponte Preta U20 or draw
79%
Ponte Preta U20 or Aguai U20
78%
Draw or Aguai U20
43%

Winning margin

Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
34%
Aguai U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
86%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
58%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
31%
Aguai U20 1+ goals
67%
Aguai U20 2+ goals
30%
Aguai U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Aguai U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponte Preta U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

Aguai U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.91 + Aguai U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Aguai U20 attack 1.05 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ponte Preta U20 scores more
57%
level
22%
Aguai U20 scores more
21%

Ponte Preta U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ponte Preta U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
K. Queiroz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponte Preta U20 vs Aguai U20

Aguai U20 beat Ponte Preta U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 3, 2024.

Goals: K. Queiroz (3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Coronel Francisco Vieira in Itapira, São Paulo.