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Ponferradina vs UD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Preview
16:00
UD Logroñés
UD Logroñés
12/6/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15
47%
Ponferradina
model favours
47%27%26%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ponferradina47%
×Draw27%
UD Logroñés26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.42
UD Logroñés
0.98

Ponferradina creates 45% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
UD Logroñés
1.06

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
UD Logroñés
1.33

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
UD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

UD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
74%
Ponferradina or UD Logroñés
73%
Draw or UD Logroñés
53%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
23%
UD Logroñés wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
76%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
41%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
17%
UD Logroñés 1+ goals
62%
UD Logroñés 2+ goals
26%
UD Logroñés 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
64%
UD Logroñés (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

UD Logroñés away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + UD Logroñés defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

UD Logroñés attack 1.06 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ponferradina scores more
47%
level
27%
UD Logroñés scores more
26%

Ponferradina at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ponferradina
LDWDW
Logroñés
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponferradina vs UD Logroñés — Match Preview

Ponferradina face UD Logroñés on December 6, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.