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Ponferradina vs Tarazona — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tarazona
Tarazona
11/25/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ponferradina48%
×Draw28%
Tarazona24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.34
Tarazona
0.86

Ponferradina creates 56% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Tarazona
0.84

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Tarazona
1.18

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Tarazona+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Tarazona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
76%
Ponferradina or Tarazona
72%
Draw or Tarazona
52%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
23%
Tarazona wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
74%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
39%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
15%
Tarazona 1+ goals
58%
Tarazona 2+ goals
21%
Tarazona 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
67%
Tarazona (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Tarazona away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Tarazona defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tarazona attack 0.84 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ponferradina scores more
48%
level
28%
Tarazona scores more
24%

Ponferradina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina vs Tarazona

Tarazona beat Ponferradina 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.