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Ponferradina vs Sabadell — Segunda División 2018

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sabadell
Sabadell
11/1/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 10Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Ponferradina43%
×Draw28%
Sabadell29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.29
Sabadell
1.01

Ponferradina creates 28% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 21 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.29
Sabadell
0.95

allows per match

Ponferradina
1.07
Sabadell
1.29

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Sabadell+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Sabadell →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
71%
Ponferradina or Sabadell
72%
Draw or Sabadell
57%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
19%
Sabadell wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
72%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
37%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
14%
Sabadell 1+ goals
64%
Sabadell 2+ goals
27%
Sabadell 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
60%
Sabadell (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 84 matches

Sabadell away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.29 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.29 + Sabadell defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sabadell attack 0.95 + Ponferradina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ponferradina scores more
43%
level
28%
Sabadell scores more
29%

Ponferradina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina vs Sabadell

Sabadell beat Ponferradina 3-0 in Segunda División on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.