Ponferradina 2–1 Real Unión: Result & Stats

Ponferradina

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Real Unión

5/12/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ponferradina52%

×Draw25%

Real Unión22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchReal Unión

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.94

Ponferradina

1.58

Real Unión

0.94

Ponferradina creates 68% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

1.51

creates per match

0.98

0.89

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.51

Real Unión

0.98

allows per match

Ponferradina

0.89

Real Unión

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Real Unión+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Real Unión →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

78%

Ponferradina or Real Unión

75%

Draw or Real Unión

48%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

27%

Real Unión wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

79%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

47%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

21%

Real Unión 1+ goals

61%

Real Unión 2+ goals

24%

Real Unión 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

70%

Real Unión (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Real Unión away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.66 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Real Unión defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Unión attack 0.98 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ponferradina scores more

52%

level

25%

Real Unión scores more

22%

Ponferradina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina vs Real Unión

Ponferradina beat Real Unión 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.

Ponferradina vs Real Unión — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ponferradina vs Real Unión