Ponferradina 2–0 Real Sociedad II: Result & Stats

Ponferradina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Sociedad II

Josep Cerdà 78'

David Andújar 66'

2/24/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ponferradina43%

×Draw29%

Real Sociedad II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.91

Ponferradina

1.22

Real Sociedad II

0.91

Ponferradina creates 34% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.51

creates per match

0.92

0.89

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.51

Real Sociedad II

0.92

allows per match

Ponferradina

0.89

Real Sociedad II

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Real Sociedad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Real Sociedad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

72%

Ponferradina or Real Sociedad II

71%

Draw or Real Sociedad II

57%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

19%

Real Sociedad II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

70%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

34%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

12%

Real Sociedad II 1+ goals

60%

Real Sociedad II 2+ goals

23%

Real Sociedad II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

61%

Real Sociedad II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Real Sociedad II away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Real Sociedad II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Real Sociedad II attack 0.92 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ponferradina scores more

43%

level

29%

Real Sociedad II scores more

28%

Ponferradina at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

B. Fiabema

33'

Y. Cabanzon

34'

U. Agote

42'

J. Cerda

63'

A. Dadie Izagirre

66'

David Andújar

67'

Ander Zoilo← Unax Agote

67'

Arkaitz Mariezkurrena← B. Fiabema

72'

A. Lebarbier← Mikel Rodríguez

76'

Clavería← Yeray Cabanzón

77'

P. Rodriguez

78'

Josep Cerdà

79'

Ekain Orobengoa← Ekain Azkune

79'

J. Ochieng← Alberto Dadie

81'

Andoni López← Nil Jiménez

82'

T. Carrique

82'

Brais Abelenda← S. Longo

90'

Ale Díez← Josep Cerdà

90'

Yuri← Borja Valle

Ponferradina

Real

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Cerdà

Manager: Íñigo Vélez

76'▲Clavería←▼Yeray Cabanzón

81'▲Andoni López←▼Nil Jiménez

82'▲Brais Abelenda←▼S. Longo

90'▲Ale Díez←▼Josep Cerdà

90'▲Yuri←▼Borja Valle

Ponferradina substitutes

ClaveríaLópezAbelendaDíezYuriJiménezLlonch

Manager: Sergio Francisco

67'▲Ander Zoilo←▼Unax Agote

67'▲Arkaitz Mariezkurrena←▼B. Fiabema

72'▲A. Lebarbier←▼Mikel Rodríguez

79'▲Ekain Orobengoa←▼Ekain Azkune

79'▲J. Ochieng←▼Alberto Dadie

Real Sociedad II substitutes

ZoiloMariezkurrenaLebarbierOrobengoaOchiengAstigarragaCámaraOlasagastiBeitia