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Ponferradina vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
4/4/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ponferradina48%
×Draw27%
Mérida AD25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.39
Mérida AD
0.91

Ponferradina creates 53% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
75%
Ponferradina or Mérida AD
73%
Draw or Mérida AD
52%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
23%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
75%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
40%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
16%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
60%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
23%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
66%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ponferradina scores more
48%
level
27%
Mérida AD scores more
25%

Ponferradina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponferradina 4 – 1 Mérida AD

Ponferradina beat Mérida AD 4-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.