Ponferradina 2–2 Mallorca: Result & Stats

Ponferradina

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mallorca

Curro 87'

O. Sielva 43' (pen)

A. Prats 75'

M. Cardona 45+2'

5/30/2021

Segunda División · Round 42Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ponferradina38%

×Draw30%

Mallorca32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.00

Ponferradina

1.10

Mallorca

1.00

Ponferradina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 45 away

1.29

creates per match

0.93

1.07

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.29

Mallorca

0.93

allows per match

Ponferradina

1.07

Mallorca

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

68%

Ponferradina or Mallorca

70%

Draw or Mallorca

62%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

15%

Mallorca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

67%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

30%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

10%

Mallorca 1+ goals

63%

Mallorca 2+ goals

26%

Mallorca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

54%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 84 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.29 + Mallorca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.10

Mallorca attack 0.93 + Ponferradina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ponferradina scores more

38%

level

30%

Mallorca scores more

32%

Ponferradina at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Marc Cardona

Mallorca · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

V. Mollejo

40'

A. Raillo

43'

O. SielvaPenalty

45+2'

M. Cardona↳ R. Inigo

46'

A. Pascanu← A. Castellano

56'

Kaxe← Yuri

57'

G. Panadero← G. Panadero

57'

A. Raillo← D. Rodriguez

57'

B. Olivan← B. E. Cufre

57'

V. Mollejo← A. Ndiaye

62'

D. Romera← J. Elitim

65'

A. Febas

69'

J. Mboula← A. Prats

73'

P. A. Adot Barandiaran← I. Rodriguez

75'

A. Prats↳ M. Cardona

80'

M. Cardona← A. Sanchez

85'

Churripi

87'

Curro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PonferradinaMallorca

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots14

3Corners7

6Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots14

5On Target5

3Off Target6

5Blocked3

10Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

36%Possession64%

290Total Passes526

225Accurate Passes452

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3