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Ponferradina vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
9/24/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ponferradina56%
×Draw26%
Fuenlabrada18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.50
Fuenlabrada
0.73

Ponferradina creates 105% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Fuenlabrada
0.58

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Fuenlabrada
1.50

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
82%
Ponferradina or Fuenlabrada
74%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
44%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
29%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
78%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
44%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
19%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
52%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
17%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
75%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ponferradina scores more
56%
level
26%
Fuenlabrada scores more
18%

Ponferradina at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina vs Fuenlabrada

Ponferradina beat Fuenlabrada 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.