Ponferradina 2–0 Deportivo La Coruna

Ponferradina

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Deportivo La Coruna

12/14/2019

Segunda División · Round 20Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Ponferradina39%

×Draw28%

Deportivo La Coruna33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PonferradinaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Coruna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.11

Ponferradina

1.22

Deportivo La Coruna

1.11

Ponferradina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 85 away

1.29

creates per match

1.15

1.07

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Ponferradina

1.29

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

allows per match

Ponferradina

1.07

Deportivo La Coruna

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par

Deportivo La Coruna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Deportivo La Coruna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw

67%

Ponferradina or Deportivo La Coruna

72%

Draw or Deportivo La Coruna

61%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+

17%

Deportivo La Coruna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals

70%

Ponferradina 2+ goals

34%

Ponferradina 3+ goals

12%

Deportivo La Coruna 1+ goals

67%

Deportivo La Coruna 2+ goals

30%

Deportivo La Coruna 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)

54%

Deportivo La Coruna (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 84 matches

Deportivo La Coruna away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.29 + Deportivo La Coruna defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.15 + Ponferradina defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ponferradina scores more

39%

level

28%

Deportivo La Coruna scores more

33%

Ponferradina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff