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Ponferradina vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
10/29/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ponferradina46%
×Draw27%
Cultural Leonesa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.41
Cultural Leonesa
1.02

Ponferradina creates 38% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 88 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Cultural Leonesa
1.16

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Cultural Leonesa
1.31

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
73%
Ponferradina or Cultural Leonesa
73%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
54%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
22%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
76%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
41%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
17%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
64%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
27%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
63%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.31 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.41

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.16 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ponferradina scores more
46%
level
27%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
27%

Ponferradina at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina vs Cultural Leonesa

Cultural Leonesa beat Ponferradina 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.