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Ponferradina vs Athletic Club II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
Preview
16:00
Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
12/20/2026Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17
49%
Ponferradina
model favours
49%26%25%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Ponferradina49%
×Draw26%
Athletic Club II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.48
Athletic Club II
0.96

Ponferradina creates 54% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Athletic Club II
1.02

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Athletic Club II
1.45

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Athletic Club II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
75%
Ponferradina or Athletic Club II
74%
Draw or Athletic Club II
51%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
25%
Athletic Club II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
77%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
43%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
19%
Athletic Club II 1+ goals
62%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
25%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
67%
Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ponferradina scores more
49%
level
26%
Athletic Club II scores more
25%

Ponferradina at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches
  • Athletic Club II raise their game against the top half — 34% wins vs the upper half, only 33% vs the lower
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ponferradina
LDWDW
II
LWLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponferradina vs Athletic Club II — Match Preview

Ponferradina face Athletic Club II on December 20, 2026 in this Primera División RFEF - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.