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Athletic Club II vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Athletic Club II
Athletic Club II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
10/11/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Athletic Club II35%
×Draw31%
Ponferradina34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Athletic Club II
0.99
Ponferradina
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Athletic Club II
1.12
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

Athletic Club II
0.98
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw
66%
Athletic Club II or Ponferradina
69%
Draw or Ponferradina
65%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+
13%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals
63%
Athletic Club II 2+ goals
26%
Athletic Club II 3+ goals
8%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
62%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
25%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)
51%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Athletic Club II scores more
35%
level
31%
Ponferradina scores more
34%

Athletic Club II at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Athletic Club II 0–0 Ponferradina

Athletic Club II and Ponferradina drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Instalaciones de Lezama Campo 2 in Lezama.