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Ponferradina vs Arenteiro — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Ponferradina
Ponferradina
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arenteiro
Arenteiro
9/22/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio El Toralín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ponferradina52%
×Draw27%
Arenteiro21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina
1.45
Arenteiro
0.82

Ponferradina creates 77% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Ponferradina
1.51
Arenteiro
0.75

allows per match

Ponferradina
0.89
Arenteiro
1.39

finishing

Ponferradina+0.00on par
Arenteiro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina ↓

Arenteiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ponferradina or draw
79%
Ponferradina or Arenteiro
73%
Draw or Arenteiro
48%

Winning margin

Ponferradina wins by 2+
26%
Arenteiro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ponferradina 1+ goals
77%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
42%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
18%
Arenteiro 1+ goals
56%
Arenteiro 2+ goals
20%
Arenteiro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina (draw refunded)
71%
Arenteiro (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.89 · 57 matches

Arenteiro away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina attack 1.51 + Arenteiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.45

Arenteiro attack 0.75 + Ponferradina defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Ponferradina scores more
52%
level
27%
Arenteiro scores more
21%

Ponferradina at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Ponferradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Ponferradina 1–2 Arenteiro

Arenteiro beat Ponferradina 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio El Toralín in Ponferrada.