Ponferradina II 1–2 Villaralbo: Result & Stats

Ponferradina II

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Villaralbo

5/1/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II36%

×Draw30%

Villaralbo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponferradina IIExpected goals in this matchVillaralbo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.05

Ponferradina II

1.08

Villaralbo

1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 52 away

1.00

creates per match

0.83

1.28

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ponferradina II

1.00

Villaralbo

0.83

allows per match

Ponferradina II

1.28

Villaralbo

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Villaralbo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Villaralbo →

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw

66%

Ponferradina II or Villaralbo

70%

Draw or Villaralbo

64%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+

14%

Villaralbo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals

66%

Ponferradina II 2+ goals

29%

Ponferradina II 3+ goals

10%

Villaralbo 1+ goals

65%

Villaralbo 2+ goals

28%

Villaralbo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)

51%

Villaralbo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Villaralbo away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Villaralbo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Villaralbo attack 0.83 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ponferradina II scores more

36%

level

30%

Villaralbo scores more

34%

Ponferradina II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Villaralbo

Villaralbo beat Ponferradina II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.

Ponferradina II vs Villaralbo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Villaralbo