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Ponferradina II vs Unami — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Unami
Unami
9/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ponferradina II57%
×Draw25%
Unami18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.64
Unami
0.81

Ponferradina II creates 102% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Unami
0.33

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Unami
2.27

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Unami+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Unami →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
82%
Ponferradina II or Unami
75%
Draw or Unami
43%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
31%
Unami wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
81%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
49%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
23%
Unami 1+ goals
56%
Unami 2+ goals
19%
Unami 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
76%
Unami (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Unami away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Unami defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

Unami attack 0.33 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
57%
level
25%
Unami scores more
18%

Ponferradina II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Ponferradina II 1–0 Unami

Ponferradina II beat Unami 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.