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Ponferradina II vs UD Santa Marta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
UD Santa Marta
UD Santa Marta
10/28/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II39%
×Draw28%
UD Santa Marta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.25
UD Santa Marta
1.13

Ponferradina II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 115 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
UD Santa Marta
0.97

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
UD Santa Marta
1.50

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
UD Santa Marta+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

UD Santa Marta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
67%
Ponferradina II or UD Santa Marta
72%
Draw or UD Santa Marta
61%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
17%
UD Santa Marta wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
71%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
36%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
13%
UD Santa Marta 1+ goals
68%
UD Santa Marta 2+ goals
31%
UD Santa Marta 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
54%
UD Santa Marta (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

UD Santa Marta away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + UD Santa Marta defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

UD Santa Marta attack 0.97 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
39%
level
28%
UD Santa Marta scores more
33%

Ponferradina II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Ponferradina II 2–2 UD Santa Marta

Ponferradina II and UD Santa Marta drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.