Ponferradina II 0–0 Real Ávila: Result & Stats

Ponferradina II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Ávila

1/28/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 18Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II29%

×Draw29%

Real Ávila42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ponferradina IIExpected goals in this matchReal Ávila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.21

Ponferradina II

0.96

Real Ávila

1.21

Real Ávila creates 26% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 76 away

1.00

creates per match

1.14

1.28

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Ponferradina II

1.00

Real Ávila

1.14

allows per match

Ponferradina II

1.28

Real Ávila

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par

Real Ávila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Real Ávila →

0–011%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw

58%

Ponferradina II or Real Ávila

71%

Draw or Real Ávila

71%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+

10%

Real Ávila wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals

62%

Ponferradina II 2+ goals

25%

Ponferradina II 3+ goals

Real Ávila 1+ goals

70%

Real Ávila 2+ goals

34%

Real Ávila 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)

41%

Real Ávila (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Real Ávila away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.91 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Real Ávila defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Ávila attack 1.14 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ponferradina II scores more

29%

level

29%

Real Ávila scores more

42%

Real Ávila at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Real Ávila will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Real Ávila

Ponferradina II and Real Ávila drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 28, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.

Ponferradina II vs Real Ávila — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Real Ávila