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Ponferradina II vs Laguna de Duero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
11/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 12Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II53%
×Draw24%
Laguna de Duero23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.70
Laguna de Duero
1.04

Ponferradina II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Laguna de Duero
0.80

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Laguna de Duero
2.40

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Laguna de Duero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
77%
Ponferradina II or Laguna de Duero
76%
Draw or Laguna de Duero
47%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
29%
Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
82%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
51%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
24%
Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
65%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
28%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
69%
Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Laguna de Duero away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Laguna de Duero defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Laguna de Duero attack 0.80 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
53%
level
24%
Laguna de Duero scores more
23%

Ponferradina II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponferradina II 2 – 3 Laguna de Duero

Laguna de Duero beat Ponferradina II 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.