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Ponferradina II vs Cultural Leonesa II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cultural Leonesa II
Cultural Leonesa II
2/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 22Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II31%
×Draw28%
Cultural Leonesa II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.04
Cultural Leonesa II
1.23

Cultural Leonesa II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Cultural Leonesa II
1.17

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Cultural Leonesa II
1.08

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Cultural Leonesa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
60%
Ponferradina II or Cultural Leonesa II
72%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa II
69%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
12%
Cultural Leonesa II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
65%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
28%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
9%
Cultural Leonesa II 1+ goals
71%
Cultural Leonesa II 2+ goals
35%
Cultural Leonesa II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
43%
Cultural Leonesa II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Cultural Leonesa II away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Cultural Leonesa II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Cultural Leonesa II attack 1.17 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
31%
level
28%
Cultural Leonesa II scores more
40%

Cultural Leonesa II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ponferradina II 0 – 0 Cultural Leonesa II

Ponferradina II and Cultural Leonesa II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.