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Ponferradina II vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
3/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II40%
×Draw27%
Becerril Campos33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.29
Becerril Campos
1.15

Ponferradina II creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 97 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
67%
Ponferradina II or Becerril Campos
73%
Draw or Becerril Campos
60%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
18%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
72%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
37%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
14%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
68%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
32%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
55%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
40%
level
27%
Becerril Campos scores more
33%

Ponferradina II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ponferradina II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Ponferradina II 0–1 Becerril Campos

Becerril Campos beat Ponferradina II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.