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Ponferradina II vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Ponferradina II
Ponferradina II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
2/18/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ponferradina II31%
×Draw29%
Atlético Tordesillas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ponferradina II
1.04
Atlético Tordesillas
1.21

Atlético Tordesillas creates 16% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Ponferradina II
1.00
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Ponferradina II
1.28
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Ponferradina II+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ponferradina II ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ponferradina II or draw
60%
Ponferradina II or Atlético Tordesillas
71%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
69%

Winning margin

Ponferradina II wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ponferradina II 1+ goals
65%
Ponferradina II 2+ goals
28%
Ponferradina II 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
34%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ponferradina II (draw refunded)
44%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ponferradina II at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 32 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ponferradina II attack 1.00 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Ponferradina II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ponferradina II scores more
31%
level
29%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
40%

Atlético Tordesillas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ponferradina II vs Atlético Tordesillas

Atlético Tordesillas beat Ponferradina II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Vicente del Bosque in Ponferrada.