Pomurje W 0–1 Shelbourne W: Result & Stats

Pomurje W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Shelbourne W

8/18/2022

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsMestni Štadion Fazanerija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Pomurje W69%

×Draw19%

Shelbourne W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pomurje WExpected goals in this matchShelbourne W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.73

Pomurje W

2.08

Shelbourne W

0.73

Pomurje W creates 185% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.50

creates per match

0.33

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Pomurje W

2.50

Shelbourne W

0.33

allows per match

Pomurje W

1.13

Shelbourne W

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomurje W+0.00on par

Shelbourne W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomurje W ↓

Shelbourne W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pomurje W or draw

88%

Pomurje W or Shelbourne W

81%

Draw or Shelbourne W

31%

Winning margin

Pomurje W wins by 2+

44%

Shelbourne W wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Pomurje W 1+ goals

87%

Pomurje W 2+ goals

61%

Pomurje W 3+ goals

34%

Shelbourne W 1+ goals

52%

Shelbourne W 2+ goals

17%

Shelbourne W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Pomurje W (draw refunded)

85%

Shelbourne W (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomurje W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Shelbourne W away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomurje W attack 2.50 + Shelbourne W defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Shelbourne W attack 0.33 + Pomurje W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Pomurje W scores more

69%

level

19%

Shelbourne W scores more

12%

Pomurje W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Pomurje W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff