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Pomurje W vs Rīgas FS W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Pomurje W
Pomurje Wadvanced
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Rīgas FS W
Rīgas FS W
8/18/2021UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsStadion Gornja Radgona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pomurje W88%
×Draw8%
Rīgas FS W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomurje W
3.75
Rīgas FS W
0.76

Pomurje W creates 393% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Pomurje W
2.50
Rīgas FS W
0.40

allows per match

Pomurje W
1.13
Rīgas FS W
5.00

finishing

Pomurje W+0.00on par
Rīgas FS W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomurje W ↓

Rīgas FS W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Pomurje W or draw
96%
Pomurje W or Rīgas FS W
92%
Draw or Rīgas FS W
12%

Winning margin

Pomurje W wins by 2+
73%
Rīgas FS W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Pomurje W 1+ goals
97%
Pomurje W 2+ goals
88%
Pomurje W 3+ goals
70%
Rīgas FS W 1+ goals
53%
Rīgas FS W 2+ goals
18%
Rīgas FS W 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Pomurje W (draw refunded)
96%
Rīgas FS W (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomurje W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Rīgas FS W away — creates 0.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomurje W attack 2.50 + Rīgas FS W defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

Rīgas FS W attack 0.40 + Pomurje W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Pomurje W scores more
88%
level
8%
Rīgas FS W scores more
4%

Pomurje W at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Pomurje W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pomurje W vs Rīgas FS W

Pomurje W beat Rīgas FS W 6-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gornja Radgona in Gornja Radgona.