Pomurje W 0–3 Fortuna Hjørring W: Result & Stats

Pomurje W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Hjørring W

12/9/2020

UEFA Champions League Women · 16th FinalsStadion Gornja Radgona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Pomurje W71%

×Draw16%

Fortuna Hjørring W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pomurje WExpected goals in this matchFortuna Hjørring W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.06

Pomurje W

2.65

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.06

Pomurje W creates 150% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Pomurje W

2.50

Fortuna Hjørring W

1.00

allows per match

Pomurje W

1.13

Fortuna Hjørring W

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomurje W+0.00on par

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomurje W ↓

Fortuna Hjørring W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Pomurje W or draw

87%

Pomurje W or Fortuna Hjørring W

84%

Draw or Fortuna Hjørring W

29%

Winning margin

Pomurje W wins by 2+

49%

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Pomurje W 1+ goals

93%

Pomurje W 2+ goals

74%

Pomurje W 3+ goals

48%

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals

65%

Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals

29%

Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Pomurje W (draw refunded)

84%

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomurje W at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Fortuna Hjørring W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomurje W attack 2.50 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.65

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.00 + Pomurje W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Pomurje W scores more

71%

level

16%

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more

13%

Pomurje W at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Pomurje W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff