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Pompiers vs Nouakchott King's — Premier League 2020

Pompiers
Pompiers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nouakchott King's
Nouakchott King's
12/5/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pompiers40%
×Draw27%
Nouakchott King's33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pompiers
1.30
Nouakchott King's
1.17

Pompiers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 77 away

creates per match

Pompiers
1.35
Nouakchott King's
1.23

allows per match

Pompiers
1.10
Nouakchott King's
1.25

finishing

Pompiers+0.00on par
Nouakchott King's+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pompiers ↓

Nouakchott King's →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pompiers or draw
67%
Pompiers or Nouakchott King's
73%
Draw or Nouakchott King's
60%

Winning margin

Pompiers wins by 2+
18%
Nouakchott King's wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Pompiers 1+ goals
73%
Pompiers 2+ goals
37%
Pompiers 3+ goals
14%
Nouakchott King's 1+ goals
69%
Nouakchott King's 2+ goals
33%
Nouakchott King's 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Pompiers (draw refunded)
54%
Nouakchott King's (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pompiers at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Nouakchott King's away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.25 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pompiers attack 1.35 + Nouakchott King's defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nouakchott King's attack 1.23 + Pompiers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Pompiers scores more
40%
level
27%
Nouakchott King's scores more
33%

Pompiers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Pompiers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pompiers vs Nouakchott King's

Pompiers beat Nouakchott King's 2-0 in Premier League on December 5, 2025.