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Pompiers vs Nouakchott Academie — Premier League 2020

Pompiers
Pompiers
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nouakchott Academie
Nouakchott Academie
5/18/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Pompiers33%
×Draw32%
Nouakchott Academie35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pompiers
0.95
Nouakchott Academie
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

creates per match

Pompiers
1.35
Nouakchott Academie
0.85

allows per match

Pompiers
1.10
Nouakchott Academie
0.54

finishing

Pompiers+0.00on par
Nouakchott Academie+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pompiers ↓

Nouakchott Academie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Pompiers or draw
65%
Pompiers or Nouakchott Academie
68%
Draw or Nouakchott Academie
67%

Winning margin

Pompiers wins by 2+
12%
Nouakchott Academie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pompiers 1+ goals
61%
Pompiers 2+ goals
25%
Pompiers 3+ goals
7%
Nouakchott Academie 1+ goals
62%
Nouakchott Academie 2+ goals
26%
Nouakchott Academie 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pompiers (draw refunded)
49%
Nouakchott Academie (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pompiers at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Nouakchott Academie away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pompiers attack 1.35 + Nouakchott Academie defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.95

Nouakchott Academie attack 0.85 + Pompiers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Pompiers scores more
33%
level
32%
Nouakchott Academie scores more
35%

Nouakchott Academie at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Nouakchott Academie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Pompiers 0–0 Nouakchott Academie

Pompiers and Nouakchott Academie drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 18, 2026.