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Pompiers vs Ksar — Premier League 2020

Pompiers
Pompiers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ksar
Ksar
10/20/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Pompiers45%
×Draw28%
Ksar27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pompiers
1.34
Ksar
0.98

Pompiers creates 37% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 78 away

creates per match

Pompiers
1.35
Ksar
0.86

allows per match

Pompiers
1.10
Ksar
1.33

finishing

Pompiers+0.00on par
Ksar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pompiers ↓

Ksar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Pompiers or draw
73%
Pompiers or Ksar
72%
Draw or Ksar
55%

Winning margin

Pompiers wins by 2+
21%
Ksar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pompiers 1+ goals
74%
Pompiers 2+ goals
39%
Pompiers 3+ goals
15%
Ksar 1+ goals
62%
Ksar 2+ goals
26%
Ksar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Pompiers (draw refunded)
62%
Ksar (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pompiers at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

Ksar away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pompiers attack 1.35 + Ksar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ksar attack 0.86 + Pompiers defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Pompiers scores more
45%
level
28%
Ksar scores more
27%

Pompiers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Pompiers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pompiers 1 – 1 Ksar

Pompiers and Ksar drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Cheikha Ould Boïdiya in Nouakchott.