Pomorzanin Toruń 1–0 Unia Swarzędz: Result & Stats

Pomorzanin Toruń

FT

1 – 0

Unia Swarzędz

4/10/2021

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń39%

×Draw27%

Unia Swarzędz34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pomorzanin ToruńExpected goals in this matchUnia Swarzędz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.20

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.32

Unia Swarzędz

1.20

Pomorzanin Toruń creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 84 away

1.12

creates per match

1.51

0.88

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

1.12

Unia Swarzędz

1.51

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń

0.88

Unia Swarzędz

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par

Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Unia Swarzędz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw

66%

Pomorzanin Toruń or Unia Swarzędz

73%

Draw or Unia Swarzędz

61%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+

18%

Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals

73%

Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals

38%

Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals

15%

Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals

70%

Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals

34%

Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)

54%

Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.32

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more

39%

level

27%

Unia Swarzędz scores more

34%

Pomorzanin Toruń at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pomorzanin Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff