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Pomorzanin Toruń vs Radunia Stężyca — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Pomorzanin Toruń
Pomorzanin Toruń
FT
2 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
9/26/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 9Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Pomorzanin Toruń18%
×Draw21%
Radunia Stężyca60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pomorzanin Toruń
0.97
Radunia Stężyca
1.97

Radunia Stężyca creates 103% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
1.12
Radunia Stężyca
3.06

allows per match

Pomorzanin Toruń
0.88
Radunia Stężyca
0.82

finishing

Pomorzanin Toruń+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pomorzanin Toruń ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Pomorzanin Toruń or draw
40%
Pomorzanin Toruń or Radunia Stężyca
79%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
82%

Winning margin

Pomorzanin Toruń wins by 2+
6%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Pomorzanin Toruń 1+ goals
62%
Pomorzanin Toruń 2+ goals
25%
Pomorzanin Toruń 3+ goals
7%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
86%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
58%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Pomorzanin Toruń (draw refunded)
23%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pomorzanin Toruń at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pomorzanin Toruń attack 1.12 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Pomorzanin Toruń defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Pomorzanin Toruń scores more
18%
level
21%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
60%

Radunia Stężyca at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pomorzanin Toruń vs Radunia Stężyca

Pomorzanin Toruń beat Radunia Stężyca 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.